If you think the Supreme Court ruling against President Trump’s tariffs heralds a return to pre-Trump business as usual — think again. The global trade order has been fundamentally altered, and the uncertainty is far from over.

Before the court ruling, Trump’s tariffs had already reshaped supply chains, redirected billions in investment, and forced companies worldwide to rethink their manufacturing strategies. The damage — or restructuring, depending on your perspective — cannot be easily reversed.

“The genie is out of the bottle,” said Dr. Chad Bown, a trade economist at the Peterson Institute. “Even if every tariff were removed tomorrow, companies have already made decisions based on the assumption of a more protectionist world.”

Global trade volumes fell 3.2% in the first quarter of 2026, according to WTO preliminary data, with particularly sharp declines in US-China bilateral trade. Southeast Asian nations, meanwhile, have seen a surge in foreign direct investment as companies seek alternative manufacturing bases.

The question now is whether Trump’s new 10% tariff — imposed hours after the court struck down his broader regime — will survive its own legal challenges, and what further trade policy surprises may be in store.